The main objective of the SUPREMA project is to establish and safeguard a meta-platform, in order to share and discuss the findings of the work with existing platforms. This science-policy interaction will bridge the gap between the expectations of policy makers and the capacity of models in a more complex environment. SUPREMA will be open towards existing platforms (e.g. iMAP, AgMIP, MACSUR, GRA) and will host two open-platform workshops to discuss challenges and needs in modelling agriculture, and explore future directions for modelling. SUPREMA comprises three interrelated work packages that go along with communication and science-policy interaction central to all phases of the project.
WP1 Challenges, needs and communication – topics for model improvements, applications and dissemination
WP1 will first draft a Scoping Paper with new challenges addressed in modelling and their consequences for model adaptions, enhancements or linkages of different models. This Scoping Paper is input for a first stakeholder workshop that is aimed 1) to prioritize the model improvements; and 2) to investigate gaps between expectations and current status-quo (baseline) models outputs and representation of value chain. Based on this information, narratives of impact analyses will be envisaged in three scenarios: a) baseline, b) CAP policy and c) climate change policies. The scenarios and narratives will be discussed in a second workshop. In order to increase transparency of models and its results and the reliability and acceptance in the scientific world, communication between modellers within and beyond the SUPREMA platform is managed. Three trainings are organized, while taking account of results from WP2. All findings on research needs that will steer the future policy relevant modelling of agriculture– including outcomes from WP2 and a third science-policy workshop from WP3 – will feed into the SUPREMA roadmap for future directions for agricultural modelling in Europe, which is the final output of the project. A last key activity of WP1 regards the outreach of projects concepts and findings at conferences, seminars, websites, policy briefs, etc., as well as to promote engagement of the envisaged SUPREMA meta-platform.
WP2 The tools – Model enhancement and integration
The aim of WP2 is to improve the capacity of the modelling network of the SUPREMA model family in order to achieve the required variety of policy objectives. First step is to develop an infrastructure that will enhance the harmonisation and data exchange across distinct models, based on previous experiences in projects and platforms, and findings from WP1. Second step is to strengthen existing and to establish new linkages among SUPREMA models in order to prepare for the envisaged scenarios in WP3. Though development of entirely new components is not foreseen in this project, the third step will ensure a series of targeted modelling improvements – in AGMEMOD, GLOBIOM, CAPRI and MITERRA - that are related to the activities in WP3. Testing and versioning of models is the important last step in the enhancing process as it is a precondition for reproducible results. This is especially the case if developments are distributed among large model network, like for CAPRI, MAGNET and AGMEMOD. Tested basic versions will improve the usefulness for European policy support and explore its capabilities.
WP3 Testing the SUPREMA model family
WP3 will apply the improved version of the models - from WP2 - in a coordinated manner for baseline projections and two relevant policy case studies to showcase the potential and limitations of the model suite to answer the policy needs as defined in WP1. The Baseline application will build on the updated databases and correspondence tables from WP2 for a common time-frame (probably 2030 for mid- term analysis, and 2050 for long-term analysis). For this test AGLINK-COSIMO and AGMEMOD play a leading role, but all SUPREMA models will be used and will ensure the use of harmonized assumptions of external drivers and report on a set of agreed indicators. The second application will be a medium term assessment of the EU agricultural policy and CAPRI, IFM-CAP and AGMEMOD-MITERRA-EUROPE play a leading role in this application. The third application will focus on a long-term assessment of climate change goals. GLOBIOM and MAGNET play a leading role in this application. The second and third tests will also be run with those models in the SUPREMA platform that have been identified as most relevant in WP1 and WP2. Common and diverging trends will be identified and documented in order to understand why models provide different results when evaluating policies. Further, it is analysed how different scales of models can be best combined to provide a comprehensive scenario assessment. At last, a methodology will be implemented that reflect the level of integration and alignment between models.
WP4 Project management and coordination
This WP aims to define and manage the overall project organisation ensuring a smooth and efficient running of the project towards its goals. The focus is on a timely delivery of quality output (including transfer of data), meeting the project budget and a timely reporting to the European Commission of the project progress and results. As SUPREMA is a multidisciplinary project requiring close cooperation and mutual learning between the modelling community and decision making, the project coordination and management is designed to support and actively facilitate the implementation of the project in this way. The activities in this WP will ensure fluent communication channels through discussions, consortium meetings and workshops. Further, the project management will 1) develop a branded website as a platform for internal and external communication; 2) define criteria regarding data governance, architecture, management, security and quality of data; and 3) review, compare and propose for a better governance of the SUPREMA models.