This Deliverable is based on the first Stakeholder Workshop held on 1st March, 2018 in Brussels and it describes the intended scope of the SUPREMA Project. It addresses different areas discussed at the 1st SUPREMA Workshop ‘Needs’ where the understanding of the challenges and needs posed to the future development of models and model based support for policy actions was emphasized and achieved. The focus was on agri-food systems and policies influencing the agri-food system locally, nationally and on a global scale. A first part comprises the stocktaking which was conducted by a questionnaire to the SUPREMA Partners. The responses were compiled together in a first scoping paper which, in turn, was used to develop the interactive 1st SUPREMA Workshop ‘Needs’ and to define the roles of Partners within the Workshop.
Two objectives were addressed from a policy perspective: We aimed to capture views of stakeholders on the future societal challenges of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and other related policy areas as well as to identify stakeholder needs for model-based analysis (both medium-term until 2030 and long-term until 2050) which may affect the future agri-food system and may require model based policy analysis for an evidence-based decision making.
Deliverable D1.1 (PDF, 2.3 MB)
The paper describes 1st SUPREMA Workshop ‘Needs’ where the understanding of the challenges and needs posed to the future development of models and model based support for policy actions was achieved. The focus was on agri-food systems and policies influencing the agri-food system locally, nationally and on a global scale. It deals on the concept and the proceedings of the interactive 1st SUPREMA Workshop ‘Needs’. Two objectives were addressed from a policy perspective:
We aimed to capture views of stakeholders on the future societal challenges of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and other related policy areas as well as to identify stakeholder needs for model-based analysis (both medium-term until 2030 and long-term until 2050) which may affect the future agri-food system and may require model based policy analysis for an evidence-based decision making.
Deliverable D1.2 (PDF, 7.7 MB)
This deliverable presents the narratives of the impact analyses in SUPREMA and serves as input for the scenarios to be run with the SUPREMA models. We envisage three narratives, respectively related to the baseline and scenarios: (a) Baseline, (b) EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and (c) climate change policy. Note that the feedback of the stakeholder workshops, respectively, on needs and narratives has been taken into account in the narratives. Applying a participatory approach involving stakeholders and their first-hand information ensures that insights from the “real world” are taken up into the SUPREMA modelling.
The CAP narrative focuses on CAP measures related to climate and the environment. These are new fundamental obligation on EU Member States, being an important priority within their CAP strategic plans. We elaborate on the economic elements, primary agricultural production, supply chain and consumer preferences, including sustainability considerations of the CAP. For climate policy, the modelling undertaken within SUPREMA aims at assessing the potential contribution of the EU agricultural sector to climate change mitigation efforts, by considering mitigation targets, specific sectors and regions. In the narratives, we include life style changes, which are linked to consumer preference that are part of the CAP narrative. Sustainability is explicitly captured by carbon sequestration and growth in the supply of bioenergy, both representing new economic opportunities and linking the SUPREMA narrative on climate policy to the sustainable development goals.
Deliverable D1.3 (PDF, 836 KB)
The Workshop on ‘Narratives’ took place on Tuesday, 5th March 2019, at the Representation of Lower Saxony to the European Union in Brussels. The input of the stakeholders served as an inventory of information supporting for policy assessments from the stakeholders‘ perspective. As a starting point for the discussion, presentations were given on the topics findings of the workshop on “Needs”, and narratives for respectively the baseline, the climate change policy and the CAP. The presentations focused on (i) scenarios, model linkages and improvements; (ii) strengths and weaknesses in the modelling; and (iii) possibilities of future directions in modelling.
The discussions with the stakeholders showed the communication challenge with regard to the role of baseline and scenario narratives. In order to evaluate the impact of any policy, measures have to be additional to what happens in the baseline. For the baseline, information about agri-food outlooks could be used. With regard to the CAP, for example, the scenarios should relate to the CAP objectives, thereby taking into account that farming needs to remain viable in terms of earnings/ income, while making the required efforts for sustainability and the environment. With regard to climate policy, it was mentioned that the focus should be on the 1.5 degrees scenarios that would be elaborated from the EU perspective. The input provided by the stakeholders is taken up in the narratives of the project, as elaborated in deliverable D1.3. Those issues that cannot be taken on board within SUPREMA will be considered for future research, i.e. for the roadmap with future directions for agricultural modelling in the EU.
Deliverable D1.4 (PDF, 3.7 MB)
This report provides a brief description of the models AGMEMOD, CAPRI, GLOBIOM, IFM-CAP, MAGNET and MITERRA-Europe, as well as references to recent applications in the fields of agriculture, climate, water and bioenergy. Furthermore, the report highlights previous cooperation efforts among modelling teams, illustrating the importance of model interlinkages and platforms to deliver integrated and comprehensive impact assessments.
Deliverable D1.5 (PDF, 2.1 MB)
Deliverable D 1.6
This report describes the implementation, the dissemination and communication activities in SUPREMA. In addition, this report covers also the implementation of the strategy developed for the whole duration of the project to achieve the objectives on communication and dissemination; to communicate the project concepts and its outputs; to promote engagement between partners and the different platforms; to involve policy makers and to ensure that the most relevant channels and effective forms of communication.
Deliverable D1.6 (PDF, 170 KB)
D1.7: Draft communication and dissemination activities
This Deliverable 1.7 describes the implementation, the dissemination and communication activities in SUPREMA covering the first year. It covers communication and dissemination activities to communicate the project concepts and its outputs as well as to promote engagement between partners, platforms and stakeholders.
Deliverable D1.7 (PDF, 771 KB)
Deliverable D1.8 ‘Report on the prospects for research’ is based on the third stakeholder workshop held on February 11th, 2020 in Brussels. It is the last of three SUPREMA workshops and presents first insight into the SUPREMA project outcomes and prospects to necessary future improvements. It summarizes the workshops, briefly describes important interactions with stakeholders and gives an first overview of the main findings. SUPREMA shows by a number of medium- and long-term scenario analyses strengthened model linkages and model improvements of the current SUPREMA toolbox and it abilities to analyse policy options and support policy decisions by empirical evidences.
Participants were involved in defining the needs and narratives of the scenarios to test the ability of the SUPREMA toolbox. In the end, achieved outcomes and improvements were validated in order to help phrasing future research prospects with respect to challenges going beyond the scope of SUPREMA. During the SUPREMA workshops general considerations were identified regarding future modelling: (i) data requirements and availability, (ii) model linkages, (iii) harmonisation among models and model outcomes as well as (iv) communication of model outcomes and assumptions. A number of topics going beyond the scope of the SUPREMA project were uncovered involving policies and their implementation schemes, farming and behaviour of producers, consumer, citizens and their behaviour, the food system, the value chains, the bio-economy and circular economy and many others.
Deliverable D1.8 (PDF, 1.7 MB)
The deliverable D1.9 ‘Stakeholders Workshop Strategic Prospects’ describes the 3rd SUPREMA Workshop ‘Strategic Prospects’. It reports on the proceedings of the workshop, describes the interaction with the stakeholders and provides a short report of the main findings of the Workshop.
At the workshop, draft outcomes of selected scenarios developed under the 2nd SUPREMA Stakeholder Workshop ‘Narratives’ were presented. Additionally draft findings of ‘model enhancement and integration’ based on the 1st SUPREMA Stakeholder Workshop ‘Needs’ and first results of ‘testing the SUPREMA model family’ were presented and discussed. Feedback of participants was captured on the outcomes and selected topics, with a focus on the narratives. Also ideas of participants about future directions for agricultural modelling in the EU were reflected.
Deliverable D1.9 (PDF, 1.1 MB)
Deliverable D 1.10
The increasing need for impact assessments in the field of agriculture that are (partly) based on forward-looking outcomes delivered by models has led to (even more) frequent maintenance and development tasks. These maintenance and development tasks are not a trivial issue and might require a considerable amount of resources in terms of labour, time, sector knowledge, computing capacity, etc. In this context, SUPREMA have try to identify the upcoming needs in the research/policy agenda, while exploring the feasibility of those potential modelling exercises by using the existing tools. This assessment has pointed out certain necessities regarding model extensions and development of new tools. At the same time, it has also revealed the potential of model integration and collaboration as a way to supplement the outcomes of individual models. With regard to the scope of the models that were considered, the focus is mainly on large scale models that are well suited for EU policy assessment at macro or meso level. In terms of the thematic coverage, the selected topics are based on the outcome of three stakeholder workshops that took place in WP1.
Therefore, a comprehensive assessment of the existing literature on modelling goes beyond the scope of this report. This document also builds on the outcomes of WP2 for which some model improvements were developed; as well as on the results of WP3 for which some scenarios to assess EU agricultural policy were simulated.